Economics Research Seminar – Dr Dr Markus Gehrsitz
Title: From Custody to Community: Post-release Supervision and Recidivism
Date: 26 November 2025
Time: 13:30- 14:30
Venue: Teams
Meeting ID: 335 774 139 778 0
Passcode: kW7Xj6DC
If you would like to attend, please register using the following link:
From Custody to Community: Post-release Supervision and Recidivism
Speaker: Dr Markus Gehrsitz
I am a Reader (Associate Professor) at the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow and Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics Labour (IZA) in Bonn.
I am currently the recipient of an UKRI-funded ADR UK Fellowship to study the rehabilitation of criminal offenders.
Abstract:
This paper asks whether supervision of previously incarcerated offenders reduces re-offending. We link administrative data on court cases, prison journeys, and probationary spells for the universe of offenders in England and Wales who have served short prison sentences. We combine these novel data with a natural experiment created by a recent national policy that introduced supervision and probationary rules. Our regression discontinuity design provides evidence that post-release supervision reduces re-offending in the first four weeks after release by 9 percent. These short-run reductions are primarily driven by the incapacitation of habitual offenders due to recalls to prison for violations of probation terms. The effect of supervision on re-offending persists over time and amounts to a 2.5 percent reduction in re-offending three years after release. Our study suggests that supervision leads to genuine behavioural change in the long run.