Economics Research Seminar – Dr Francesco Fusari

Economics Research Seminar – Dr Francesco Fusari

Title: VARs and Local Projections Equivalence for Impulse Responses: Unit Roots and Multiple Instruments

Date: 3 December 2025

Time: 13:30 – 14:30

Venue: NUBS.4.25

Speaker:         Dr Francesco Fusari

Francesco is a Lecturer in Economics at Newcastle University Business School.

https://www.ncl.ac.uk/business/people/profile/francescofusari.html

Abstract:

his paper asks whether supervision of previously incarcerated offenders reduces re-offending. We link administrative data on court cases, prison journeys, and probationary spells for the universe of offenders in England and Wales who have served short prison sentences. We combine these novel data with a natural experiment created by a recent national policy that introduced supervision and probationary rules. Our regression discontinuity design provides evidence that post-release supervision reduces re-offending in the first four weeks after release by 9 percent. These short-run reductions are primarily driven by the incapacitation of habitual offenders due to recalls to prison for violations of probation terms. The effect of supervision on re-offending persists over time and amounts to a 2.5 percent reduction in re-offending three years after release. Our study suggests that supervision leads to genuine behavioural change in the long run.