Economics Research Community Seminar – Professor Paul Mizen

Title: Estimating the Impact of Brexit

Date: 20 March 2024

Time: 13:30-14:30

Location: NUBS.2.04

If you would like to attend, please register using the following link:

Estimating The Impact of Brexit

Speaker:

Professor Paul Mizen Professor in Economics Deputy Director, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence Vice Dean, Research King’s College London

Abstract:

Using both macro and micro approaches based on Decision Maker Panel data we estimate that the UK economy is significantly smaller than it would have been without the vote of Brexit. By the start of 2023, GDP is estimated to have been around 5% lower, business investment 12% lower, employment 2% lower and productivity 3% lower. These effects are estimated to have built gradually since 2016. Our results imply that lower investment predominantly reflects the effects of uncertainty with lower employment following more from lower demand. The impact on productivity is well correlated with time and resources being spent on planning for Brexit and being dependent on EU imports. We also find some tentative evidence of lower innovation through EU exposed firms being less likely to apply for patents after 2016.